Final Recap Of My Financial Market Predictions For 2012

by Hank Coleman

Below is a recap of my stock market predictions for 2012…

I originally made my stock market predictions in January 2012. Here is a recap of my market predictions below and how things have turned out during this year in highlighted text.

  • Stocks will continue a steady increase coming out of the Recession and pick up a normal growth rate of 8% gain again in 2012.  The S&P 500 Index will end at 1,357 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average will finish this year at 13,194 on December 31st, 2012. Half and half! Got this one! The S&P finished at 1,426.19 (up +13.41%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 13,104.14 (up +7.26%).
  • Apple will finally start issuing a quarterly dividend in 2012. I got this one right too!
  • Facebook will finally go public with the world’s largest public offering ever late in the year. Right Again! Facebook filed its S-1 in February, and went public this summer much to everyone’s eventual consternation. Check out why I bought shares of Facebook on the very first day of trading.
  • President Obama loses and is not reelected to a second term. Wow! I missed this one.
  • Unemployment will finish 2012 under 8%. So far so good. We ended at 7.7%. Right again! 
  • America will see a steady, healthy 3% inflation rate. Under 3%, looking good!
  • Home values will stabilize across the country with most regions reaching a 1% annual growth on home prices. December showed great hope for home prices gradually increasing again. I’m counting this as a W too!
  • The Federal Reserve will raise the Federal Funds Rate to 0.75%. The Fed Sucks! That’s all I’ve got to say. My purebred dog, Winston, could do better than Ben Bernanke at running the Fed. I can’t wait for his term to be over at the end of 2013.
  • GDP growth in the US will be 3% in 2012. It’s a trailing indicator, and we’ll find out for sure in a few months. But, I’m right on and looking Good!
  • Mortgage rates and the interest rate on the 10 Year Treasury will start to increase, steepening the yield curve. The 30 Year Fixed Mortgages will be at a 5.0% interest rate by the end of the year. Once again the Fed stinks! I missed this one thanks to good old Ben.
  • The personal savings rate in America will continue to fall and finish the year at 1.0%. This one is unfortunately coming true but we’re holding onto about 4%.

No one knows what the future holds, of course, but I thought that it would be fun to have a little guess and make some economic and stock market predictions for the new year.  I will try and revisit these key economic indicators and stock market predictions throughout the year and finish the recap on December 31st 2012 to see how my stock market predictions pan out.

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About Hank Coleman

Hank Coleman is the founder of Money Q&A, an Iraq combat veteran, a Dr. Pepper addict, and a self-proclaimed investing junkie. He has written extensively for many nationally known financial websites and publications. Hank holds a Master’s Degree in Finance and is currently pursuing his Certified Financial Planner credentials. Email him directly at Hank[at]MoneyQandA.com.


Hank Coleman has written 498 articles on Money Q&A. Learn more about Money Q&A on Twitter @MoneyQandA and @HankColeman.


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{ 7 comments… read them below or add one }

Elizabeth @ Simple Finance

Nice recap! Have to say, I’m pretty happy with some of your misses, if only for selfish reasons (as in, we put off buying a house til 2013, and I want those rates to be as low as they were in 2012!).
Elizabeth @ Simple Finance recently posted..What I Did Right This Year: Fully Funding My Roth IRAMy Profile

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Hank Coleman

I completely understand. I want to buy another rental house too. So, I like home values staying a little lower in the near future. But, as a homeowner, I definitely want my largest asset to increase in value sooner rather than later like historic norms.
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Tie the Money Knot

Looks like you did a pretty good job of predicting events in 2012…impressive. My predictions are going to be focused on my own endeavors, as I’m not as good at the bigger picture things I can’t control :)

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Connor Harley

Remarkable job on your predictions for the 2012 stock market changes. Definitely happy for some that didn’t come true. I look forward to your 2013 predictions. I’ll gladly take them into account.
Connor Harley recently posted..9 Cheap Renovation IdeasMy Profile

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AverageJoe

Nice job! If Winston were the Fed chairman, you would have had two more!
AverageJoe recently posted..5 Simple Steps to Kick 2013 Into High GearMy Profile

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PipsToday

Your 7 predictions are right while 3 wrong means more than 50% prediction is right. So, now I am interested to know, when prediction about 2013 will be share with us.
PipsToday recently posted..GBP/USD is Trading on an UptrendMy Profile

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Brett @ wstreetstocks

Good job with your predictions. I was suprised about the Federal Funds Rate too. I thought that they would raise it.
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