Final Recap Of My Financial Market Predictions For 2012

by Hank Coleman

Below is a recap of my stock market predictions for 2012…

I originally made my stock market predictions in January 2012. Here is a recap of my market predictions below and how things have turned out during this year in highlighted text.

  • Stocks will continue a steady increase coming out of the Recession and pick up a normal growth rate of 8% gain again in 2012.  The S&P 500 Index will end at 1,357 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average will finish this year at 13,194 on December 31st, 2012. Half and half! Got this one! The S&P finished at 1,426.19 (up +13.41%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 13,104.14 (up +7.26%).
  • Apple will finally start issuing a quarterly dividend in 2012. I got this one right too!
  • Facebook will finally go public with the world’s largest public offering ever late in the year. Right Again! Facebook filed its S-1 in February, and went public this summer much to everyone’s eventual consternation. Check out why I bought shares of Facebook on the very first day of trading.
  • President Obama loses and is not reelected to a second term. Wow! I missed this one.
  • Unemployment will finish 2012 under 8%. So far so good. We ended at 7.7%. Right again! 
  • America will see a steady, healthy 3% inflation rate. Under 3%, looking good!
  • Home values will stabilize across the country with most regions reaching a 1% annual growth on home prices. December showed great hope for home prices gradually increasing again. I’m counting this as a W too!
  • The Federal Reserve will raise the Federal Funds Rate to 0.75%. The Fed Sucks! That’s all I’ve got to say. My purebred dog, Winston, could do better than Ben Bernanke at running the Fed. I can’t wait for his term to be over at the end of 2013.
  • GDP growth in the US will be 3% in 2012. It’s a trailing indicator, and we’ll find out for sure in a few months. But, I’m right on and looking Good!
  • Mortgage rates and the interest rate on the 10 Year Treasury will start to increase, steepening the yield curve. The 30 Year Fixed Mortgages will be at a 5.0% interest rate by the end of the year. Once again the Fed stinks! I missed this one thanks to good old Ben.
  • The personal savings rate in America will continue to fall and finish the year at 1.0%. This one is unfortunately coming true but we’re holding onto about 4%.

No one knows what the future holds, of course, but I thought that it would be fun to have a little guess and make some economic and stock market predictions for the new year.  I will try and revisit these key economic indicators and stock market predictions throughout the year and finish the recap on December 31st 2012 to see how my stock market predictions pan out.

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About Hank Coleman

Hank Coleman is the founder of Money Q&A, an Iraq combat veteran, a Dr. Pepper addict, and a self-proclaimed investing junkie. He has written extensively for many nationally known financial websites and publications. Hank holds a Master’s Degree in Finance and is currently pursuing his Certified Financial Planner credentials. Email him directly at Hank[at]MoneyQandA.com.


Hank Coleman has written 531 articles on Money Q&A. Learn more about Money Q&A on Twitter @MoneyQandA and @HankColeman.


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