Below is a recap of my stock market predictions for 2012
I originally made my stock market predictions in January 2012. Here is a recap of my market predictions below and how things have turned out during the first half of this year in highlighted text. Granted, this is only the first three months….nine more to go! We will see how the rest of the year shapes out.
- Stocks will continue a steady increase coming out of the Recession and pick up a normal growth rate of 8% gain again in 2012. The S&P 500 Index will end at 1,357 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average will finish this year at 13,194 on December 31st, 2012. It has been a few rough months lately for the stock market, but I’m still optimistic on my 8%+ gain for the markets for the year. Currently, the S&P is at 1,362 and the Dow is at 12,880. On Track!
- Apple will finally start issuing a quarterly dividend in 2012. Apple announced that they will start issuing a dividend later this year! Got This One Right!
- Facebook will finally go public with the world’s largest public offering ever late in the year. Got This One Right Too!
- President Obama loses and is not reelected to a second term. We’ll have to wait until November for this one.
- Unemployment will finish 2012 under 8%. So far so good. We are creeping down but not fast enough and not in a straight line. We are currently at 7.9% for May 2012 and it is starting to creep up again from 7.7% in April. Might not make this one!
- America will see a steady, healthy 3% inflation rate. Looking good!
- Home values will stabilize across the country with most regions reaching a 1% annual growth on home prices. Not so sure about this one yet. Maybe.
- The Federal Reserve will raise the Federal Funds Rate to 0.75%. Not looking so good for this one. Darn you Big Ben!
- GDP growth in the US will be 3% in 2012. Looking Good!
- Mortgage rates and the interest rate on the 10 Year Treasury will start to increase, steepening the yield curve. The 30 Year Fixed Mortgages will be at a 5.0% interest rate by the end of the year. Again, no way thanks to Ben Bernanke and company.
- The personal savings rate in America will continue to fall and finish the year at 1.0%. This predication is unfortunately coming true.
No one knows what the future holds, of course, but I thought that it would be fun to have a little guess and make some economic and stock market predictions for the new year. I will try and revisit these key economic indicators and stock market predictions throughout the year and finish the recap on December 31st 2012 to see how my stock market predictions pan out.
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{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }
Thank goodness for BenGenie! Refinanced a couple months ago to a 5/1 2.625% and am pumped!
I really hope the markets close at around 1,400 for the year.
Financial Samurai recently posted..Please Believe In The Man I May Become
It is a two edged sword I’m afraid. On the one hand, I completely understand where people want cheap loans whether it is refinancing homes, buying cars, and other big purchases. But, of course, the savers of the country have been getting screwed for years and years now because of the low interest rate environment. Hopefully it will not last for too much longer than into 2014 as promised, and maybe then it will begin to creep back up.
Hank Coleman recently posted..Infographic: Money Questions We All Ask
The Fed was pretty clear no interest rate hikes until end of 2013. But you are getting closer on the home values forecast since there’s improvement in prices.
Oil and Gas ETF recently posted..The Best Oil ETF to Profit from Canada’s Oil Boom
You are right but I had initially made my first prediction before the good old Fed came out with their crazy declaration not to increase rates until 2013. So, that is why I have always held out hope from even before the new year that they would eventually start to creep the rates back up. I guess that I will just have to wait for 2014 to earn a better return on my saving and money market accounts.
Hank Coleman recently posted..Infographic: Money Questions We All Ask
I agree with you on your stock market prediction. I think its going to be pretty quiet from now through the election though.